Britain’s high streets enjoyed a welcome lift last month as an early Easter drew shoppers back through the doors, but retailers are warning that the bounce may prove fleeting as a fresh wave of tax rises and wage costs bears down on the sector this month.
Total UK footfall climbed 2.4 per cent year-on-year in March, according to figures from the British Retail Consortium (BRC), reversing a grim start to the year that saw shopper numbers fall by 0.6 per cent in January and a chastening 4.5 per cent in February as persistent wet weather kept high streets quiet.
Yet behind the headline figure lies a more anxious story. The BRC cautioned that the Easter uplift, which arrived earlier than usual this year, fell short of what retailers had been banking on, leaving many in no mood to celebrate as April’s cost pressures begin to bite.
Shopping centres led the recovery with a 2.6 per cent rise, followed closely by retail parks at 2.5 per cent, while high streets themselves managed a more modest two per cent gain. Regionally, Manchester staged the strongest comeback, with total footfall surging by more than nine per cent, while London edged ahead of the national average at 3.3 per cent.
Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC, struck a cautious note. With Easter and the school holidays falling earlier this year, she said, retailers had been expecting a stronger boost than March actually delivered. Warmer weather might help sustain momentum in the coming weeks, Dickinson added, but without a repeat lift in April the recovery was far from assured.
Andy Sumpter, retail consultant at Sensormatic, which compiles the BRC’s footfall data, was blunter still, suggesting that March would have recorded a decline altogether were it not for the Easter effect. He pointed to a worrying cocktail of falling consumer confidence, geopolitical uncertainty and rising living costs, not least at the petrol pump, as reasons shoppers are cutting back on discretionary trips. The real test, he argued, will be whether footfall can hold up once the Easter boost fades and tougher year-on-year comparisons return.
The mood among retail chiefs has been lifted, if only tentatively, by President Trump’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire, although that deal has since been cast into doubt. The BRC noted that a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, should it materialise, could bring global energy prices back towards more manageable levels before the bulk of companies come to renew their supply contracts.
Even so, the warning lights on the retail dashboard remain firmly on. Trade bodies representing both retail and hospitality are sounding the alarm over mounting employment costs and April’s hike to business rates, which together threaten to swallow any windfall the Easter trade may have produced.
Dickinson urged ministers to do their bit by easing the burden of domestic policy costs, arguing that lower overheads would free operators to invest in value, experience and their in-store offer, the very things, she said, that help drive footfall and breathe life into local economies.
For Britain’s SMEs, which make up the bulk of independent high-street operators, the message from the data is unmistakable. Easter has provided a fleeting reprieve, but the structural pressures squeezing margins show little sign of easing. Whether March’s modest rebound proves to be the first swallow of summer or merely a brief interlude before tougher trading conditions return will, retailers fear, come down to decisions taken in Whitehall as much as on the shop floor.
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Easter lifts footfall but retailers brace for April cost squeeze