Jeffrey Miron
The current national debt is almost $39 trillion—and rising.
The 2025 One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act has only made matters worse. New research indicates that
federal deficits and the debt-to-GDP ratio will rise substantially and inexorably over the next several decades under any plausible set of economic assumptions, with no natural turning point in sight.
Assuming the
OBBBA’s temporary provisions expire as scheduled … maintaining the US federal debt-to-GDP ratio at 98 percent by 2054 would require permanent spending cuts or tax increases totaling $827 billion, beginning immediately.
In the absence of spending cuts or tax increases, the next decade will see
deficits … increase by more than $4.2 trillion due to the OBBBA, a figure that rises to $5.5 trillion if its temporary spending and tax provisions are made permanent. … [Also,] federal debt will reach 183 percent of GDP by 2054, or 199 percent if its temporary provisions are made permanent.
Not to worry—the current administration has a plan to fix it.
Cross-posted from Substack.